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First things first - remember that COVID isnât the only thing you can get sick with. Flu and RSV are surging, too, and hospitals are overwhelmed. If youâre sick, skip this yearâs Thanksgiving meal for the sake of your loved ones. Even if your COVID test was negative, you could still have flu or RSV. Getting up to date on your flu shot and your COVID booster are the best things you can do to protect yourself and your family. Ventilation is key for indoor gatherings - open windows, use filters and fans, and get as much air circulating as possible to reduce the spread of flu and COVID. RSV spreads through larger particles and fomites, so handwashing is key for preventing that. Itâs also a good idea to have everyone test beforehand!
Our recommendation, when possible, is to take a test 24-48 hours before your gathering, and then another one the day of, just before you or your guests arrive. At-home rapid tests arenât great at catching asymptomatic COVID, but theyâre much more accurate when you do serial testing a day or two apart. Of course, if you have symptoms, itâs best to take one for the team and stay home this Thanksgiving to avoid spreading illness to your loved ones.
Our friend Mara Aspinall covered COVID rebound in this weekâs Sensitive & Specific newsletter. COVID rebound happens in people who were treated with Paxlovid, the antiviral, and in people who werenât. It appears to happen more often after Paxlovid, but the exact numbers are hard to pin down and may change based on which variant is in play. A recent study from this past summer when BA.4 and BA.5 were top dogs showed nearly 20% of people had Paxlovid rebound, but thatâs tempered by the fact that it found about 7% rebounded even without treatment. Itâs still incredibly effective at preventing severe disease (81%!), and most rebound disease is mild. The reality that rebound happens shouldnât deter anyone from getting treated, especially if theyâre at high risk. It saves lives (plus, you might still rebound even if you donât get treated).
We donât think it will be. A new analysis from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation out of the University of Washington says that weâre not likely to get hit as badly this year, unless a new variant crops up out of the blue that isnât on our radar right now. Obviously, itâs possible since thatâs what happened with Omicron last year, but itâs not very likely. The spike in âcommonâ viruses like RSV and flu could be what makes this winter rough, rather than a COVID surge, but if cases donât skyrocket after next weekâs holiday gatherings, weâll feel better about our overall outlook.
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